Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: Were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?

The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are required to infer whether the number of new cases is likely to be increasing or decreasing: for example, estimating the pathogen-effective reproduction number, R, using data gathered from the clinical response to the disease. For coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19/SARS-Cov-2), such R estimation is heavily dependent on modelling assumptions, because the available clinical case data are opportunistic observational data subject to severe temporal confounding. Given this difficulty, it is useful to retrospectively reconstruct the time course of infections from the least compromised available data, using minimal prior assumptions. A Bayesian inverse problem approach applied to UK data on first-wave Covid-19 deaths and the disease duration distribution suggests that fatal infections were in decline before full UK lockdown (24 March 2020), and that fatal infections in Sweden started to decline only a day or two later. An analysis of UK data using the model of Flaxman et al. gives the same result under relaxation of its prior assumptions on R, suggesting an enhanced role for non-pharmaceutical interventions short of full lockdown in the UK context. Similar patterns appear to have occurred in the subsequent two lockdowns.

Persistence of Lockdown Consequences on Children: A Cross-sectional Comparative Study.

Lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant psychological impact on children and adolescents. This study compared lockdown effects on children aged 1-10 years in 2020 and 2021. Two structured questionnaires were administered to 3392 parents in 2020, and 3203 in 2021. Outcomes considered for the data analysis included sleep changes, episodes of irritability, attention disturbances, distance learning and number of siblings. For data analysis, children were divided into two groups: pre-scholar (1-5 years old) and older ones. The lockdown was associated with a significant increase in sleep disturbances in 2020 and persisted after a year. The high prevalence of mood changes persisted unchanged in children under the age of 10 in 2020 and in 2021. Even if strengthened family ties seemed to mitigate the negative impact of lockdowns in 2020, this effect appeared absent or at least reduced in 2021. Irritability and rage in children were perceived to have increased in 2021 compared to 2020. A significant reduction in digital device use was observed in 2021 compared to 2020. Overall, the most harmful consequences of the lockdown in 2020 were still observed in 2021. Further studies are needed to analyze possible psychological effects that the generation who experienced the pandemic during early childhood may have, particularly in their future adolescence, in order to identify possible intervention practices to support families.

Ozone pollution in London and Edinburgh: spatiotemporal characteristics, trends, transport and the impact of COVID-19 control measures.

Air pollution remains the most serious environmental health issue in the United Kingdom while also carrying non-trivial economic costs. The COVID-19 lockdown periods reduced anthropogenic emissions and offered unique conditions for air pollution research. This study sources fine-granularity geo-spatial air quality and meteorological data for the capital cities of two UK countries (i.e. England's capital London and Scotland's capital Edinburgh) from the UK Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) spanning 2016-2022 to assess long-term trends in several criteria pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO) and the changes in ozone pollution during the pandemic period. Unlike other studies conducted thus far, this research integrates several tools in trend estimation, including the Mann-Kendall test, the Theil-Sen estimator with bootstrap resampling, and the generalized additive model (GAM). Moreover, several investigations, including cluster trajectory analysis, pollution rose plots, and potential source contribution function (PSCF), are also employed to identify potential origin sources for air masses carrying precursors and estimate their contributions to ozone concentrations at receptor sites and downwind areas. The main findings reveal that most of the criteria pollutants show a decreasing trend in both geographies over the seven-year period, except for O3, which presents a significant ascending trend in London and a milder ascending trend in Edinburgh. However, O3 concentrations have significantly decreased during the year 2020 in both urban areas, despite registering sharp increases during the first lockdown period. In turn, these findings indicate on one hand that the O3 generation process is in the VOC-limited regime in both UK urban areas and, on the other hand, confirm previous findings that, when stretching the analysis period, diminishing ozone levels can lead to NOx reduction even in VOC-controlled geographies. Trajectory analysis reveals that northern Europe, particularly Norway and Sweden, is a principal ozone pollution source for Edinburgh, whereas, for London, mainland Europe (i.e., the Benelux countries) is another significant source. The results have important policy implications, revealing that effective and efficient NOx abatement measures spur ozone pollution in the short-term, but the increase can be transient. Moreover, policymakers in London and Edinburgh should consider that both local and transboundary sources contribute to local ozone pollution.

RELIABILITY METHODS FOR ANALYZING COVID-19 PANDEMIC SPREADING BEHAVIOR, LOCKDOWN IMPACT AND INFECTIOUSNESS

In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to challenge the globalized world. Restrictions on public life and lockdowns of different characteristics define life in many countries. This paper focuses on the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (01-28-2020 to 01-15-2021). As a transfer of methods used in reliability engineering for analyzing the occurrence of infection, Weibull distribution models are used to evaluate the spreading behavior of COVID-19. Key issues of this study are the differences in spreading behavior in the first and second pandemic phase and the various impacts of lockdown measures with different characteristics (hard, light). Therefore, the occurrence of infection in normed time periods with and without lockdown measures are analyzed in detail on the example of Germany representing the spreading behavior in Europe. Additional information in comparison to classical infection analyzes models like the SIR model is generated by the application of Weibull distribution models with easily interpretable parameters and the dynamic development of COVID-19 is outlined. In a further step, the occurrence of infection of COVID-19 is put into the context of other common infectious diseases in Germany like Influenza or Norovirus to evaluate the infectiousness. Differences in the spreading behavior of COVID-19 in comparison to these well-known infectious diseases are underlined for different pandemic phases. © ESREL 2021. Published by Research Publishing, Singapore.

The Lockdown Impact on the Relations between Portuguese Parents and Their 1- to 3-Year-Old Children during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Many countries have applied mandatory confinement measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as school and kindergarten closures, which confined families to their homes. The study concerns the impacts of the first COVID-19 lockdown on the relationships between Portuguese parents and their children, in a non-clinical population composed of fathers and mothers of children between the ages of 12 months and 3 years and 364 days. An online questionnaire (set by the research team) and the Parenting Daily Hassles Scale (PDHS) concerning the confinement period were applied between 17 June and 29 July 2020. To assess the impacts of the lockdown, outcomes regarding the impacts perceived by the parents, the potential regression in the development of children, and the willingness to promote changes in family routines in the future, were considered. Of the total sample (n = 1885), 95.4% of the parents (n = 1798) said that, after confinement, the relationship with their children had improved or remained similar to the pre-confinement period; 97.3% (n = 1835) noticed positive changes in the development of their children, and 63.7% (n = 1200) noted that the relationships with their children during the confinement period would lead to some changes in family routines in the future. Multivariate regression analyses showed that most of the sociodemographic variables chosen were not associated with the outcomes. However, significant levels of pressure over parenting and parental overload (reported by high scores in the PDHS intensity and frequency scales), challenging behaviors of the children, and the impacts they had on parental tasks had negative influences on the studied outcomes. On the contrary, the number of adults living with their children, the perceptions regarding the development of their children, and sharing new experiences with them were significant factors for positively-perceived impacts on the relationships between them or in the desire to bring about changes in family routines in the future. The impacts of the lockdown on the relationships between parents and children aged between 1 and 3 years old were more dependent on relational aspects and on the parents' sense of competence in exercising parental functions. We conclude that, despite the increased demands imposed by the lockdown, nearly all of the parents evaluated the quality of the relationship with their children as positive after this period.

Analyzing the Impact of Lockdown in Controlling COVID-19 Spread and Future Prediction

COVID-19 outbreaks are the critical challenge to the administrative units of all worldwide nations. India is also more concerned about monitoring the virus’s spread to control its growth rate by stringent behaviour. The present COVID-19 situation has huge impact in India, and the results of various preventive measures are discussed in this paper. This research presents different trends and patterns of data sources of States that suffered from the second wave of COVID-19 in India until 3rd July 2021. The data sources were collected from the Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. This work reacts particularly to many research activities to discover the lockdown effects to control the virus through traditional methods to recover and safeguard the pandemic. The second wave caused more losses in the economy than the first wave and increased the death rate. To avoid this, various methods were developed to find infected cases during the regulated national lockdown, but the infected cases still harmed unregulated incidents. The COVID-19 forecasts were made on 3rd July 2021, using exponential simulation. This paper deals with the methods to control the second wave giving various analyses reports showing the impact of lockdown effects. This highly helps to safeguard from the spread of the future pandemic.

Nowhere to hide: The significant impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) measures on elite and semi-elite South African athletes.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the perceptions of South African elite and semi-elite athletes on return to sport (RTS); maintenance of physical conditioning and other activities; sleep; nutrition; mental health; healthcare access; and knowledge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). DESIGN: Cross- sectional study. METHODS: A Google Forms survey was distributed to athletes from 15 sports in the final phase (last week of April 2020) of the level 5 lockdown period. Descriptive statistics were used to describe player demographic data. Chi-squared tests investigated significance (p<0.05) between observed and expected values and explored sex differences. Post hoc tests with a Bonferroni adjustment were included where applicable. RESULTS: 67% of the 692 respondents were males. The majority (56%) expected RTS after 1-6 months. Most athletes trained alone (61%; p<0.0001), daily (61%; p<0.0001) at moderate intensity (58%; p<0.0001) and for 30-60min (72%). During leisure time athletes preferred sedentary above active behaviour (p<0.0001). Sleep patterns changed significantly (79%; p<0.0001). A significant number of athletes consumed excessive amounts of carbohydrates (76%; p<0.0001; males 73%; females 80%). Many athletes felt depressed (52%), and required motivation to keep active (55%). Most had access to healthcare during lockdown (80%) and knew proceedings when suspecting COVID-19 (92%). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 had physical, nutritional and psychological consequences that may impact on the safe RTS and general health of athletes. Lost opportunities and uncertain financial and sporting futures may have significant effects on athletes and the sports industry. Government and sporting federations must support athletes and develop and implement guidelines to reduce the risk in a COVID-19 environment.

Global to local impacts on atmospheric CO2from the COVID-19 lockdown, biosphere and weather variabilities

The worldwide lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in year 2020 led to an economic slowdown and a large reduction in fossil fuel CO2 emissions (Le Quéré 2020 Nat. Clim. Change 10 647-53, Liu 2020 Nat. Commun. 11);however, it is unclear how much it would slow the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the main driver of climate change, and whether this impact can be observed considering the large biosphere and weather variabilities. We used a state-of-the-art atmospheric transport model to simulate CO2, and the model was driven by a new daily fossil fuel emissions dataset and hourly biospheric fluxes from a carbon cycle model forced with observed climate variability. Our results show a 0.21 ppm decrease in the atmospheric column CO2 anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere latitude band 0-45 N in March 2020, and an average of 0.14 ppm for the period of February-April 2020, which is the largest decrease in the last 10 years. A similar decrease was observed by the carbon observing satellite GOSAT (Yokota et al 2009 Sola 5 160-3). Using model sensitivity experiments, we further found that the COVID and weather variability are the major contributors to this CO2 drawdown, and the biosphere showed a small positive anomaly. Measurements at marine boundary layer stations, such as Hawaii, exhibit 1-2 ppm anomalies, mostly due to weather and the biosphere. At the city scale, the on-road CO2 enhancement measured in Beijing shows a reduction by 20-30 ppm, which is consistent with the drastically reduced traffic during the COVID lockdown. A stepwise drop of 20 ppm during the city-wide lockdown was observed in the city of Chengdu. The ability of our current carbon monitoring systems in detecting the small and short-lasting COVID signals at different policy relevant scales (country and city) against the background of fossil fuel CO2 accumulated over the last two centuries is encouraging. The COVID-19 pandemic is an unintended experiment. Its impact suggests that to keep atmospheric CO2 at a climate-safe level will require sustained effort of similar magnitude and improved accuracy, as well as expanded spatiotemporal coverage of our monitoring systems. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.

The Role of Women in the Digital Age: Balancing professional and personal challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic

The paper presents the analysis of data collected with a survey on COVID-19 impact on STEM including engineering and Information and Communication Technologoes (ICT) professionals from different regions that have different cultures and focuses on the effect on women or other marginalized groups. Four major geographic areas are considered - Europe, Asia, North and South America. Particularities in Western, Eastern and Balkan regions in Europe are identified and compared with other geographic regions. Specific models for balancing professional and personal COVID-19 challenges adopted by women and other groups are pointed out and discussed with a focus on past, present, and future. The study will help employers, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs), and authorities to define better policies for supporting women and other marginalized groups in pandemic and other situations that bring office at home and require intensive use of digital technologies. Hints for game changes in the post-COVID 19 period are proposed. Copyright (C) 2021 The Authors.

Significant impact of nationwide SARS-CoV-2 lockdown measures on the circulation of other respiratory virus infections in Austria.

BACKGROUND: Since the worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2, different European countries reacted with temporary national lockdowns with the aim to limit the virus transmission in the population. Also Austria started a lockdown of public life in March 2020. OBJECTIVES: In this study we investigated whether the circulation of different respiratory virus infections in Austria, as assessed by the established respiratory virus surveillance system, is affected by these measures as well and may reflect the success of the lockdown in limiting respiratory virus transmission. STUDY DESIGN: Sentinel data obtained for influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus and rhinovirus cases were analyzed and compared between the season 2019/2020 and the five previous seasons. RESULTS: We observed a rapid and statistically significant reduction of cumulative cases for all these viruses within short time after the lockdown in March 2020, compared to previous seasons (each p < 0.001). Also, sentinel screening for SARS-CoV-2 infections was performed and a decrease of SARS-CoV-2 was seen after the lockdown. While for the seasonally occurring viruses as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus or human metapneumovirus the lockdown led to the end of the annual epidemics, a re-increase of rhinovirus infections was observed after liberalization of numerous lockdown measures. CONCLUSIONS: Our data provide evidence that occurrence of different respiratory virus infections reflect not only the efficiency of lockdown measures taken against SARS-CoV-2 but it shows also the effects of lockdown releases on the transmission of respiratory viruses.